largely explains and in detail the great economist Nouriel Roubini in the intervention reported in my previous post ( NO RECOVERY IN SIGHT ) a real recovery, supported and sustained the global economy and financial markets are still far away. We expect even more difficult times, potential collapse of sovereign wealth funds, national insolvencies and bankruptcies, rampant unemployment, a new burst of independence movements and even terrorists, rampant spread of narcotics prey on the most destructive loss of hope of rich people and the desperation of the poor, regional conflicts and violence at all levels, from family to the oppression of the masters workers, citizens and immigrants.
The last time the world has experienced a structural crisis of this magnitude was during the Great Depression and the result was the total destruction of the Second World War that allowed the world to live after a phase of reconstruction and unparalleled wealth (which, of course, has not been exploited in the right way).
So what does the future hold? Ironically, nuclear power, which marked the end of World War II, may continue to be the single element that protects us from the full-scale war. A head of state, irrational and not currently involved in the space of states which govern the world (then Kim Il Sung of North Korea, Iran or Ahmadinehjad Zardan of Pakistan Asif Ali) could (but I think it's a possibility is very remote) decide to use an atomic bomb against an enemy state but it is difficult the heads of the other nuclear powers (Russia, America, India, France, Israel, China) agrees to compete on an atomic scale because their common interest is to dominate, oppress and exploit the world and its resources and it is impossible to exploit a world wrapped from the nuclear winter.
So, thanks to nuclear power, the world war (unfortunately for the world leaders that they would certainly have preferred the option of sending the massacre million and millions of people to support the booming business of war production and eliminate more rapidly, killed, soldiers in war industries and new jobs, unemployment) no longer a possibility and the recovery will be much more gradual.
As I wrote in a blog entry a few months ago ( A DARK FUTURE FOR AMERICA, December 2008) director James Cameron was a visionary when the TV series he created in the early 2000s, Dark Angel , suggested America beset by an economic depression in the near future high-tech. It 'just that, in fact the most plausible scenario.
The money is gone. Over the last two decades wastes were burned to invest not just today but also to invest today, tomorrow and for the next 10-50 years. This means that instead of having billions of dollars (or euro, yuan, yen, rubles) to invest in fraudulent schemes and wacky ideas, there will be few millions (or thousands) of dollars (or euro, yuan, yen, rubles) to invest in the most brilliant ideas, concrete and clear that the human mind will invent.
Paradoxically, this could be an asset. Since we also have to deal with the environmental crisis will be a push towards the creation of technologies to optimize fuel consumption or to truly innovative technologies such as quantum mechanics, nanotechnology (see blog entry WILL NANOTECHNOLOGY TO PULL THE CATCH? ) and stem cells, which have made progress in recent years without the benefit of doping resulting from financial or government capital stock ( given that banks have focused on pure financial speculation subprime credit / ponzi (see blog entry I PONZI YOU ARE) and the Bush administration has cut government funding for research on embryonic stem cells as its first executive decision after taking power in a judicial coup in 2001.
This means that when, two, three, four or even five years market has reached its lowest point to remove all the toxins financial (if that is possible but, as a little I dislike admitting it, because, for as we did not deserve it, the real possibility of a recovery, based perhaps on a different global order, there is one) will begin to grow again but will do so at very moderate rates, as on the other hand happens in any market that is not inflated by Ponzi scams, slowed down further from the burden of debts we have accumulated. A weak but long term this growth (and economic equity) will not match a bogus welfare and wasteful as in two decades at the turn of the millennium, but instead correspond progress significant technological (not necessarily benefit).
The political and social evolution of the world is another matter entirely. In the coming years, in that respect, I see only big steps back. If our technological growth will be managed in the right way in the long run (which I doubt) then we also have a social growth but I think that, before this happens will be great changes that we can not even imagine.
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